Trump heads to Turkey as NATO is strained by Russia attacks and U.S. pressure

President Donald Trump is headed to Turkey for a summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, as the alliance is squeezed by Russia’s continuing military aggression in Ukraine and America’s growing insistence that NATO members quickly beef up their defense spending.

Those pressing concerns come on top of lingering controversies surrounding the U.S.′ war against Iran and its prior attempts to take over Greenland, a territory of NATO member Denmark.

Trump is a central figure in all of those issues.

What would a positive summit outcome look like?

Michael O’Hanlon of the Brookings Institution told CNBC’s The Exchange that a positive outcome would include NATO making headway on sharing its military spending burden, and finding more ways to put pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

O’Hanlon said progress on burden sharing appears within reach: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said in May the task ahead is “to turn Allied commitments into concrete results” at the summit.

However, a breakdown in talks looms, given Trump has frequently criticized NATO, including members’ refusal to heed U.S. calls during the campaign against Iran to help clear the economically vital Strait of Hormuz.

“I don’t expect great things, but even incremental progress and no blow-up would be welcome,” O’Hanlon said.

Trump’s schedule in Ankara

Trump is set to arrive in Ankara on Tuesday afternoon after departing the U.S. on Monday evening, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told reporters in a call previewing the trip.

He is slated to meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan upon arrival, then participate in a bilateral meeting after an arrival ceremony, followed by a NATO leaders’ dinner.

After a “family photo” with the leaders on Wednesday morning, Trump will join a working session, then hold bilats with Zelenskyy and Syrian President Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa.

Trump will hold a press conference, then depart Ankara for the White House.

Russian attacks ahead of the summit

On Sunday, Russia bombarded Ukraine’s capital city of Kyiv with dozens of missiles and hundreds of strike drones, killing at least 11 and injuring scores more, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and media reports.

The attacks on the eve of the summit, which Zelenskyy is slated to attend, ensured the war will be a pressing focus for the 32-member alliance, which has labeled Putin’s war in Ukraine the “gravest threat” to Euro-Atlantic security in decades.

One day before the strikes, Trump and Putin held a “business-like and constructive” phone call initiated by the U.S. that lasted nearly 90 minutes, according to the Kremlin.

Trump stressed in the call that Russia and America could realize their “colossal potential for mutually beneficial cooperation” once the war in Ukraine ends, while Putin portrayed a rosy picture of Russian military efforts as the “real situation on the battlefield,” according to Putin aide Yuri Ushakov.

Trump also spoke that day with Zelenskyy, who later declared that the strikes on Kyiv underscore Ukraine’s desperate need for additional military aid, especially from the U.S.

Zelenskyy said early Monday morning that “The United States and Europe have enough strength to stop this terror.”

He hopes to leave the NATO summit with commitments from the member states to ramp up support for Ukraine’s air defenses, and is set to hold a bilateral meeting with Trump in Turkey on Wednesday afternoon, according to the White House.

But Trump, who has previously clashed with Zelenskyy and praised Putin, may not agree that the solution to the four-year war is to further strengthen Ukraine.

When Trump was asked Monday morning why Putin apparently felt no pressure to avoid hostilities following their call, he insisted that the Russian leader is indeed seeking to end the war.

“I think he does feel pressure,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “He wants to end it, and Ukraine wants to end it, and we’re in talks, and we’ll see if we can get it ended.”

“Putin wants it to end, I will tell you that very strongly,” Trump added, saying the two men had a “good call.”

He said Zelenskyy also wants the war ended, and that NATO discussions would focus on it.

O’Hanlon told CNBC that he does not think there is “any great evidence” Putin is closer to doing a deal, adding that he hopes Trump is right but has not seen proof yet.

NATO spending and U.S. demands

NATO members already agreed last year to increase their spending to 5% of GDP from 2% by 2035, but the Trump administration is demanding countries scale up to that target “as soon as possible.”

Matthew Whitaker, U.S. ambassador to NATO, said the target is that Europe takes over the conventional defense of the European continent, adding that the U.S. is “not going away, we’re just doing less.”

A senior U.S. official told reporters to expect “billions of dollars in announcements” on the sidelines in Ankara.